Usa 2020, Biden trionfa alle primarie democratiche in South Carolina (La Presse)

Today’s Primaries: the Joe Biden Show?

Joe Biden is rapidly approaching nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate. In today’s primaries, which are being held in six states, he could not only expand his lead over Bernie Sanders significantly but essentially end Sanders’ bid to be leader of the free world.

Biden’s Path to Victory

After his surprisingly decisive victory on Super Tuesday on March 3, Joe Biden could take the final step towards becoming the Democrat’s presidential candidate during today’s primaries. Biden is leading the polls in five of the six states and will now, for the first time, will go one on one against Sanders, which ought to increase his edge even further.

Prior to Super Tuesday, Sanders had been a heavy favorite, but he was only able to win three of the 14 primaries, failing in Texas in and only narrowly winning California. Biden had benefited from the withdrawal of the two moderate candidates Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar prior to Super Tuesday.

Former Candidates Line Up to Endorse Biden

Moreover, Biden, by now, has received several endorsements of support from former moderate presidential candidates over the past few days, including Senator Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, and Beto O’Rourke. Meanwhile, Sanders has failed even to obtain Elizabeth Warren’s endorsement. At first glance, what seems to confirm Sander’s argument against the establishment is a clear sign that the party has recognized that Sanders is unsustainable as a candidate and could endanger not only the White House but also the majority within the House of Representatives. Moreover, it has signaled that many Democrats see this race as decided with the Super Tuesday results.

Today’s Electoral Map Looks Swell for Biden

One can expect that Biden will prevail today on March 10. In the southern states of Mississippi and Missouri, Biden can rely on the strong African American electorate, demographics Sanders has traditionally struggled with. As a result, Biden leads the polls in both states clearly with 77-22 and 62-32, respectively. In the conservative midwestern states of Idaho and North Dakota, Biden is also expected to win. The biggest prize of the evening, however, is Michigan, known for its blue-collar workers. This is a natural demographic of Biden and one that could not be more diametrically opposed to Sanders’ socialist ideas. Furthermore, Super Tuesday already indicated that the working class profoundly rejects Sanders and his half-baked philosophy.

Most of the evening’s delegates are assigned here (125). However, the excellent news for Biden does not cease there. In polls published yesterday, Biden was ahead in both an EPIC-MRA survey and a survey by Monmouth University. He led 51 to 27 percent in the first and 51 to 36 percent in the second, which would all but seal his win in Michigan.

The Ghost of 2016

The only thing that may dampen Biden’s anticipation is memories of 2016. At that time, Sanders trailed Clinton on the eve of the election in the RealClearPolitics poll average by more than 21 percentage points and still won the state extremely narrowly with 49.68 to 48.26 percent. It is doubtful whether Sanders can repeat the miracle, notably since his turnout under his base – the young voters – has declined since 2016 but also since Super Tuesday and, most importantly, because the name of the opposing ticket is not Clinton, but Joe Biden.

What should not make it easier for Sanders is the fact that Biden has received a number of top-tier Michigan endorsements, including from Governor Gretchen Whitmer, former Governor Jennifer Granholm, and former Senator Carl Levin.

What remains for Sanders is the hope to win at least the liberal state of Washington, where polls predict a close race. However, it appears that even if Sanders wins Washington the multiplication of Biden’s current delegate number of 610 is more than conceivable if not a certainty.

In fact, Biden’s chance of obtaining the nomination is currently projected at 90 percent according to FiveThirtyEight. If today turns out the way polls are indicating it, Sanders’ race will de facto be run. Moreover, even if Sanders decided to continue his campaign afterward, upcoming primary polls in key states look brutal for Sanders such as Georgia and Florida, and could thus culminate in a national embarrassment.